| City dashboard (2022) | |
|---|---|
| Population | 0.8 million |
| Surface area (km2) | 120 |
| Mobility demand (km) | 13 billion |
| Mobility demand per person per day (km) | 45.7 |
| Mobility emissions (CO2e) | 1.3 megatons |
| Emissions per person per day (CO2e) | 4.29 kilograms |
Urban mobility global warming impact (2030)
0.0°C
Emissions reductions required to reach the 1.5°C target by 2030
-0%
0.0MtCO2e
Introduction
San Francisco offers a great mix of mobility services, with a balanced modal share between cars (59%), public transit (31%), walking (6%), and other modes. Mobility demand in San Francisco accounted for 13 billion kilometers (8 billion miles) traveled in 2022, generating 1.2 MtCO2e.
Despite car-free zones, hundreds of kilometers of bike lanes, and a good public transit system, more than half of the distance traveled in 2022 in San Francisco was via cars, contributing to 86% of city mobility emissions.
To boost public transit use, the city has launched the Bay Area Transit-Oriented Affordable Housing (TOAH) Fund, providing $40 million to promote equitable transit-oriented development across nine counties. It provides financing for the development of affordable housing, community services, fresh food markets, and other facilities near transit lines.
Current situation
Based on city plans, mobility demand is expected to grow by 7% by 2030 while CO2 emissions are forecasted to decrease by 20%. San Francisco has been at the forefront of decarbonization, having achieved a 41% emission reduction six years ahead of schedule. In 2021, Mayor London Breed set a more ambitious target, reducing emissions by 61% by 2030 (below 1990 levels) to become carbon-neutral by 2040.
Current mobility trends predict that electric vehicles will continue to increase in market share because of San Francisco’s plan for electric vehicles making up at least a quarter of registered private vehicles and 80% of trips to be low carbon by 2030. San Francisco also aims to have electric vehicles account for 100% of private vehicle traffic by 2040. Additionally, California banned the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035.
However, San Francisco’s commitments to address transport emissions are still roughly 0.3 MtCO2e short of the target, requiring an additional 11% decrease in emissions on top of current government commitments by 2030 to stay within 1.5°C of warming.
Optimization
We explored four different optimization scenarios:
All the optimization scenarios get San Francisco to the 1.5°C target and require only limited shifts in behavior or small reductions in projected demand, thanks to the city’s ambitious blueprint. All four scenarios are a good fit for San Francisco, but the default, multimodal, and electrification scenarios would require smaller behavioral changes than the active mobility scenario.
* indicates the scenarios that achieve the greatest realistic emissions reduction
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would be possible, and would not require a reduction in total mobility demand compared to 2022.
Reduce personal car use:
Boost public transport:
Increase active mobility:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would be possible, and would not require a reduction in total mobility demand compared to 2022.
Reduce personal car use:
Accelerate electrification of the fleet:
Increase active mobility:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would be possible, and would not require a reduction in total mobility demand compared to 2022.
Reduce personal car use:
Boost public transport:
Promote shared mobility:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would be possible, and would not require a reduction in total mobility demand compared to 2022.
Reduce personal car use:
Increase walking:
Increase cycling:
