| City dashboard (2022) | |
|---|---|
| Population | 8.3 million |
| Surface area (km2) | 778 |
| Mobility demand (km) | 60 billion |
| Mobility demand per person per day (km) | 19.8 |
| Mobility emissions (CO2e) | 3.7 megatons |
| Emissions per person per day (CO2e) | 1.23 kilograms |
Urban mobility global warming impact (2030)
0.0°C
Emissions reductions required to reach the 1.5°C target by 2030
-0%
0.0MtCO2e
Introduction
New York offers a great mix of mobility services, with a balanced modal share between cars (28%), public transit (41%), walking (28%), and other modes. Mobility demand in New York accounted for 60 billion kilometers (37 billion miles) traveled in 2022, generating 3.7 MtCO2e.
More than a quarter of distance traveled was by car, contributing to 68% of city mobility emissions in 2022. And while reducing car emissions is a key lever to reaching the Paris Agreement target, New York is already less car reliant than many other cities due to its balanced mix of mobility services.
New York City pledged in 2023 to improve infrastructure that can help boost active mobility modes like cycling and walking. The NYC Department of Transportation is expanding bike lane infrastructure and e-bike accessibility as ridership reaches record levels, as well as “super sidewalk” re-designs of major pedestrian spaces.
Current situation
Based on city plans, mobility demand is expected to grow by 9% by 2030 while CO2 emissions are forecasted to decrease by 25% due to greater electric vehicle adoption.
New York City’s 80x50 Plan proposes to cut emissions by 80% by 2050 through state-wide grid emission reduction, increased electric vehicle uptake due to the 2035 ban on the sale of gasoline-powered cars, increased investment in public transit, and other initiatives such as instituting a congestion charge for cars in 2024.
One of New York’s greatest assets is its comprehensive public transit network, which offers buses, trains, metro, trams, and ferries. Starting in July 2023, New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA), its public transit operator, kicked off a $35 million project to expand 12 subway lines. The MTA has plans both to increase frequency of trips on current lines and improve subway station infrastructure. New York also is expanding some incentive programs, like temporarily offering various free bus service lines across the city.
However, New York’s commitments to address transport emissions are still roughly 0.8 MtCO2e short of the target, requiring an additional 30% decrease in emissions on top of current government commitments by 2030 to stay within 1.5°C of warming.
Optimization
We explored four different optimization scenarios:
All the optimization scenarios get New York to the 1.5°C target, but to do so requires significant shifts in behavior or reductions in demand. For example, the active mobility scenario would require each person to walk an additional six kilometers, or four miles, per day. The electrification and multimodal scenarios are the best fit for New York, due to the strong public transit infrastructure and a power grid that is transitioning to sustainable energy.
* indicates the scenarios that achieve the greatest realistic emissions reduction
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 4% or approximately 1.1 kilometers (0.7 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Reduce personal car use:
Increase active mobility such as cycling:
Promote shared mobility:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would be possible, requiring a reduction in total mobility demand of 2% or approximately 0.8 kilometers (0.5 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Reduce personal car use:
Accelerate electrification of the fleet:
Increase active mobility:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 4% or approximately 1.1 kilometers (0.7 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Reduce personal car use:
Increase active mobility:
Promote shared mobility:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not require a reduction in total mobility demand but would require extreme increases in active mobility compared to 2022.
Reduce personal car use:
Increase cycling:
Increase walking:
