| City dashboard (2022) | |
|---|---|
| Population | 9.2 million |
| Surface area (km2) | 1,485 |
| Mobility demand (km) | 168 billion |
| Mobility demand per person per day (km) | 50.1 |
| Mobility emissions (CO2e) | 23.9 megatons |
| Emissions per person per day (CO2e) | 7.12 kilograms |
Urban mobility global warming impact (2030)
0.0°C
Emissions reductions required to reach the 1.5°C target by 2030
-0%
0.0MtCO2e
Introduction
Mexico City is heavily dependent on cars, with more than 75% of all passenger kilometers traveled via car. There is a strong demand for mobility, as 168 billion kilometers (104 billion miles) were traveled in 2022, generating 23.9 MtCO2e.
Despite the reliance on cars, Mexico City has invested in public transit, bringing ridership up to 15% of all passenger kilometers in 2022 — a higher rate than a decade ago. However, the limited electrification of both cars and buses hampers the city’s ability to reduce emissions.
Current situation
Based on city plans, mobility demand is expected to grow by 19% by 2030 while CO2 emissions are forecasted to increase by 18%, with small shifts to more sustainable modes of transportation such as public transit and walking.
Mexico City has been promoting public transit use by expanding and modernizing its network. Between 2019 and 2022, it allocated a US$5.5 billion budget for transport infrastructure projects and maintenance. While these efforts show progress, it will not be enough to offset the growing car emissions impact, which is projected to increase by 18% by 2030. Mexico City’s ongoing program to reduce emissions from cars (Hoy No Circula) exempts zero emissions vehicles from restrictions that prevent when gasoline-powered cars can drive through the city, which could incentivize future electric vehicle purchases but has not yet done so.
And yet, Mexico City’s current emissions trajectory is about 5.1 MtCO2e short of the target, requiring an additional 53% decrease in emissions by 2030 to stay within 1.5°C of warming.
Optimization
We explored four different optimization scenarios:
Our model indicates that Mexico City cannot achieve the 1.5°C target without significant shifts in behavior and reductions in demand. Reducing demand is not an easy option and may not be realistic. Due to the significant existing car infrastructure, Mexico City should consider incentivizing electrification of public and private fleets. However, because of its carbon-intensive electric grid, the city’s ability to lower emissions will be limited. Without a sharp reduction in the power grid footprint and an increase in electrification, Mexico City would only be able to meet the target with a reduction in demand. To avoid going down that path, the city should consider pursuing a lower carbon grid paired with electrification.
* indicates the scenario that achieves the greatest realistic emissions reduction
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 33% or approximately 17.0 kilometers (10.6 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Aggressively reduce personal car use:
Increase active mobility such as cycling:
Promote shared mobility:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 27% or approximately 13.8 kilometers (8.6 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Aggressively reduce personal car use:
Accelerate electrification of the fleet:
Increase active mobility such as cycling:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 33% or approximately 16.9 kilometers (10.5 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Aggressively reduce personal car use:
Boost public transit:
Promote active and shared mobility:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 14% or approximately 7.5 kilometers (4.7 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Aggressively reduce personal car use:
Increase cycling:
Increase walking:
