| City dashboard (2022) | |
|---|---|
| Population | 9.7 million |
| Surface area (km2) | 10,577 |
| Mobility demand (km) | 207 billion |
| Mobility demand per person per day (km) | 58.3 |
| Mobility emissions (CO2e) | 27.3 megatons |
| Emissions per person per day (CO2e) | 7.68 kilograms |
Urban mobility global warming impact (2030)
0.0°C
Emissions reductions required to reach the 1.5°C target by 2030
-0%
0.0MtCO2e
Introduction
Los Angeles is heavily dependent on cars, accounting for 93% of all passenger kilometers traveled. As a sprawling city over a wide geography, there is an enormous demand for mobility, as 207 billion kilometers (129 billion miles) were traveled in 2022, generating 27.3 MtCO2e – 99% of which came from personal cars.
Despite that car reliance, Los Angeles has committed to a significant increase in zero emissions vehicles, which will enable it to lower its emissions footprint. In preparation for the 2028 Olympics, the city has committed to a host of mobility improvements, such as bus and bike lanes and mobility hubs in central LA.
Current situation
Based on city plans, mobility demand is expected to grow by 8% by 2030 while CO2 emissions are expected to decrease by 8%, driven by small shifts to greener modes of transportation, like electric vehicles.
Current mobility trends predict that electric vehicles will continue to increase in market share because of California’s ban on gasoline-powered car sales beginning in 2035, as well as increased investments in charging infrastructure.
Los Angeles Metro’s 2020 Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) lays out a roadmap to build, operate, maintain, and partner for improved mobility through 2050. Measures include expanding the metro rail network to more than 200 stations over 385 kilometers (240 miles), investing $105 billion in roadway maintenance that includes new active mobility and multi-modal projects, and $7 billion in funding for active mobility projects like protected pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure. This plan is projected to bring 1.84 million jobs and an increase in gross regional product of $196 billion.
And yet, Los Angeles’ current emissions trajectory is about 13.5 MtCO2e short of the target, requiring an additional 54% decrease in emissions by 2030 to stay within 1.5°C of warming.
Optimization
We explored four different optimization scenarios:
Our model indicates Los Angeles cannot achieve the 1.5°C target without significant shifts in behavior or reductions in demand. Reducing demand is not an easy option and may not be realistic. Los Angeles already benefits from a low-carbon intensive, renewable grid, making electrification an appealing option. However, the size of the city and the large distances typically traveled are a significant hurdle. Los Angeles should explore enhancing electrified public transit and investing in infrastructure, such as dense housing that lowers the need for mobility.
* indicates the scenario that achieves the greatest realistic emissions reduction
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 40% or approximately 23.8 kilometers (14.7 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Aggressively reduce personal car use:
Boost public transit:
Promote active mobility and shared mobility:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 40% or approximately 23.8 kilometers (14.7 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Aggressively reduce personal car use:
Accelerate electrification of the fleet:
Boost public transit:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 40% or approximately 23.8 kilometers (14.7 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Aggressively reduce personal car use:
Increase active mobility:
Promote public transit and shared mobility:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 35% or approximately 20.7 kilometers (12.9 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Aggressively reduce personal car use:
Increase active mobility:
Increase walking:
