| City dashboard (2022) | |
|---|---|
| Population | 15.4 million |
| Surface area (km2) | 907 |
| Mobility demand (km) | 172 billion |
| Mobility demand per person per day (km) | 30.7 |
| Mobility emissions (CO2e) | 17.7 megatons |
| Emissions per person per day (CO2e) | 3.16 kilograms |
Urban mobility global warming impact (2030)
0.0°C
Emissions reductions required to reach the 1.5°C target by 2030
-0%
0.0MtCO2e
Introduction
Lagos offers a balanced modal share split, with a majority of modal share split between cars (27%), public transit (40%), and motorbikes or mopeds (22%). Mobility demand is strong, accounting for 172 billion kilometers (107 billion miles) traveled in 2022, generating 17.7 MtCO2e.
Lagos is not highly car reliant, accounting for only about a quarter of distance traveled and more than a third of mobility emissions. Paratransit or informal public transit plays a key role in connecting residents to the city. Motorbikes and mopeds are also widely used.
Current situation
Based on city plans, mobility demand is expected to grow by 48% by 2030 while CO2 emissions are forecasted to increase by 50%, driven by rapid growth without a focus on reducing emissions.
Efforts are underway, but it will require enormous investment. As the city grows, the electrification of public transit and mopeds and investments in e-bike infrastructure will make the relatively high share of these modes more sustainable. Lagos’s Metropolitan Area Transport Authority has partnered with energy company Oando Clean Energy to offer electrified buses as an alternative to conventional BRTs and Danfo buses.
Nigeria has two plans: a near-term Climate Action Plan with goals up to 2025, and its Energy Transition Plan, which aims to achieve net zero by 2060. Nigeria also has specific agreements with the United Nations, called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, to end gas flaring, install 13 gigawatts of off-grid solar infrastructure, and improve energy efficiency by 30% by 2030. The Nigerian government targeted $10 billion in international investment to support these plans, but as of May 2023, still has not received funding.
In February 2023, the Director General of the National Council on Climate Change unveiled plans for a carbon tax policy.
While Lagos has made some commitments to address transport emissions, current projections will be 14.2 MtCO2e short of the target, requiring an 115% decrease in emissions by 2030 to stay within 1.5°C of warming.
Optimization
We explored four different optimization scenarios:
Lagos relies heavily on public transit and paratransit. However, rapid urbanization is driving emissions up, making it challenging for the emission trajectory to comply with 1.5°C target by 2030. To get there, Lagos would need to pair demand reduction with significant modal shifts. Reducing demand is not easy and not realistic for a city undergoing rapid growth and development. In theory, Lagos could invest heavily in decarbonizing the power grid and electrifying public transport to meet the target, but this would likely require significant international support and investment.
* indicates the scenario that achieves the greatest realistic emissions reduction
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 15% or approximately 10.6 kilometers (6.6 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Aggressively reduce personal car use:
Decarbonize the power grid:
Promote motorbike/moped usage:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 18% or approximately 11.4 kilometers (7.1 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Reduce personal car use:
Decarbonize the power grid:
Promote active mobility:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 15% or approximately 10.6 kilometers (6.6 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Aggressively reduce personal car use:
Decarbonize the power grid:
Promote motorbike/moped usage:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not require a reduction in total mobility demand but would require extreme increases in active mobility compared to 2022.
Aggressively reduce personal car use:
Decarbonize the power grid:
Promote active mobility:
