| City dashboard (2022) | |
|---|---|
| Population | 4.7 million |
| Surface area (km2) | 1,610 |
| Mobility demand (km) | 58 billion |
| Mobility demand per person per day (km) | 34.1 |
| Mobility emissions (CO2e) | 9.3 megatons |
| Emissions per person per day (CO2e) | 5.47 kilograms |
Urban mobility global warming impact (2030)
0.0°C
Emissions reductions required to reach the 1.5°C target by 2030
-0%
0.0MtCO2e
Introduction
Dubai is heavily dependent on cars for mobility, with over 80% of all passenger kilometers traveled via car. Mobility demand in Dubai accounted for 58 billion kilometers (36 billion miles), generating 9.3 MtCO2e in 2022.
Despite the reliance on cars, Dubai has reached an 8% modal share for public transit. In preparation for Expo 2020, the city massively invested, including the expansion of its metro network. There also has been a significant increase in electrification both for cars and buses, enabling Dubai to lower its carbon footprint.
Promoting active mobility is unlikely to have significant success in Dubai’s hot climate, although multiple cycling and bike-sharing programs were launched in recent years.
Current situation
Based on city plans, mobility demand is expected to grow by 27% by 2030 while CO2 emissions are forecasted to increase by 19% as more sustainable modes, like public transit, are only seeing small bumps in ridership.
Efforts to boost sustainable mobility infrastructures are underway: Dubai's Road and Transit Authority aims to build a 421-kilometer metro network and 197 stations by 2030, while the Electricity and Water Authority plans to invest in electric vehicle charging infrastructure that will likely boost EV market shares. Dubai also recently completed construction of multiple pedestrian and cyclist infrastructure projects, such as the 475-meter (520-yard) long pedestrian- and cyclist-only bridge over Ras Al Khor.
However, Dubai's current emissions trajectory is about 6.0 MtCO2e short of the target, requiring an additional 54% decrease in emissions by 2030 to stay within 1.5°C of warming.
Optimization
We explored four different optimization scenarios:
Our model indicates Dubai cannot achieve the 1.5°C target without significant shifts in behavior and reductions in demand. Reducing demand is not an easy option and these shifts may not be realistic. For example, the active mobility scenario would require each person to walk an additional seven kilometers, or four miles, per day in the Dubai heat. Considering the climate, significant additional walking is not a feasible path. Dubai should, instead, explore transitioning the power grid, which is highly dependent on fossil fuels, toward renewable energy. This, combined with electrification, would allow Dubai to take advantage of existing car infrastructure for low-emissions mobility.
* indicates the scenario that achieves the greatest realistic emissions reduction
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 30% or approximately 11.3 kilometers (7.0 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Aggressively reduce personal car use:
Boost public transit:
Promote active mobility and shared mobility:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 30% or approximately 11.4 kilometers (7.0 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Aggressively reduce personal car use:
Accelerate electrification of the fleet:
Boost metro ridership:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 30% or approximately 11.3 kilometers (7.0 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Aggressively reduce personal car use:
Boost public transit:
Promote shared mobility:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 9% or approximately 4.7 kilometers (2.9 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Aggressively reduce personal car use:
Increase walking:
Increase cycling:
