| City dashboard (2022) | |
|---|---|
| Population | 3.8 million |
| Surface area (km2) | 892 |
| Mobility demand (km) | 34 billion |
| Mobility demand per person per day (km) | 24.3 |
| Mobility emissions (CO2e) | 2.9 megatons |
| Emissions per person per day (CO2e) | 2.08 kilograms |
Urban mobility global warming impact (2030)
0.0°C
Emissions reductions required to reach the 1.5°C target by 2030
-0%
0.0MtCO2e
Introduction
Berlin offers a great mix of mobility services with a balanced modal share between cars (45%), public transit (25%), walking (20%), and other modes. Mobility demand is robust, as 34 billion kilometers (21 billion miles) were traveled in 2022, generating 2.9 MtCO2e.
Nearly half of the distance traveled through Berlin in 2022 was via cars, contributing 81% of mobility emissions. That’s despite Berlin boasting well-developed public transit systems and cycling infrastructure, strong commitments to sustainable mobility, and the fewest cars per person in Germany.
Current situation
Based on city plans, mobility demand is expected to grow by 7% by 2030 while CO2 emissions are forecasted to decrease by 26% due to greater electric vehicle adoption.
Current mobility trends predict that electric vehicles will continue to increase in market share because Berlin plans to ban gasoline-powered cars beginning in 2030 and continues to invest in charging infrastructure.
But electric vehicles need to be folded into a holistic vision for all sustainable mobility modes. Berlin’s 2020 Mobility Act offers that vision, laying the legal foundation to organize transportation in a climate-friendly, accessible, and safe way. It considers aspects such as pedestrian safety and accessibility, personal bicycle and bike sharing infrastructure including parking, and electrification and affordability of buses and trams.
However, Berlin’s commitments to address transport emissions are still roughly 0.7 MtCO2e short of the target, requiring an additional 51% decrease in emissions on top of current government commitments by 2030 to stay within 1.5°C of warming.
Optimization
We explored four different optimization scenarios:
All the optimization scenarios get Berlin to the 1.5°C target, but to do so requires significant shifts in behavior or reductions in demand. For example, the active mobility scenario would require each person to walk an additional 7.4 kilometers, or 4.6 miles, per day. The electrification scenario is the best fit for Berlin, and an effort to reduce energy grid emissions would multiply the impact of electrification if the electricity were sustainably sourced.
* indicates the scenario that achieves the greatest realistic emissions reduction
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 12% or approximately 4.0 kilometers (2.5 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Reduce personal car use:
Increase ride-hailing and taxis:
Promote motorbike/moped use:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 7% or approximately 2.9 kilometers (1.8 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Reduce personal car use:
Accelerate electrification of the fleet:
Increase active mobility such as cycling:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would require extreme changes: a reduction in total mobility demand of 12% or approximately 3.9 kilometers (2.4 miles) per person per day compared to 2022.
Reduce personal car use:
Promote shared mobilities:
Promote motorbike/moped use:
When simulating realistic modal shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not be possible. When allowing larger shifts, achieving 1.5°C would not require a reduction in total mobility demand but would require extreme increases in active mobility compared to 2022.
Reduce personal car use:
Increase walking:
Increase cycling:
