What Urban Mobility Will Look Like In 2035

Foreword

Disruptions from new technologies and regulations in mobility are not only transforming the way we travel but are challenging executives to find new revenue streams and operating models.

Rapidly expanding markets like electric vehicle charging and advanced driver‑assistance systems hold promise for a more sustainable, equitable, and efficient mobility future, while on-demand services and smart parking services are making travel more convenient and enjoyable.

Business leaders looking to steer their firms through an uncertain economic climate should use this report to understand how to capitalize on uniquely growing markets. To that end, the Oliver Wyman Forum has compiled expert opinions and research on macroeconomic trends, social factors, and microeconomic drivers to forecast mobility’s growth to a $1.1 trillion industry by 2035.

The analyses not only provide in-depth insights into major mobility modes and services, but also revisit assessments and past forecasts on technology development to offer explanations on why certain segments have performed better or worse than previously expected.

This report, which forecasts activity across 14 sectors and five regions to 2035, offers a novel opportunity to anticipate markets with an analytical depth not seen elsewhere.

Executive Summary

The next generation of technology is intersecting with regulatory shifts and industry consolidation to drive global mobility industry growth to $1.1 trillion through 2035, from $389 billion in 2023, with the highest rates of growth forecasted in Asia. Individual mobility modes were the main drivers of past growth in the mobility sector, and former market disruptors like ride-hailing and e-scooters are largely settled in most major markets. Now, digital services like advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and electric vehicle (EV) charging are set to account for much of the industry’s growth. 

These digital services are projected to have average growth of 25% per year over the current decade through 2035, compared to 9% for the overall mobility sector. Digital services are expected to generate annual revenue of $610 billion in 2035, up from $42 billion in 2023, with potential gains for sustainability and the livability of cities.

To gauge the impact, the Oliver Wyman Forum analyzed 14 mobility services — from ride-hailing and EV charging to navigation services — across five regions: North America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.

The forecasts included in this report represent a slight decrease in total expectations from the Oliver Wyman Forum’s previous Mobility Value Pool report, published in 2022.

Then, we expected a total mobility market of $660 billion by 2030, while updated forecasts predict a $650 billion market by 2030. Original expectations for some nascent industries like air taxis, ride-hailing, and car subscriptions have cooled, while forecasts for the charging services market have increased. Sectors like air taxis and bus pooling will not materialize to the degree expected in the previous report.

Meanwhile, technological improvements to services like EV charging and ADAS, proactive government regulation that facilitates their broader use, and industry consolidation are driving the growth of many services in this report. In EV charging, for instance, large companies from the energy, manufacturing, and heavy industrial sectors across Europe, North America, and Asia are investing in charging service providers. Meanwhile, larger players are buying up smaller competitors and integrating companies across different stages of the supply chain. This consolidation will reduce the number of providers in the market and drive increasing uniformity in charging services and offerings, all while fostering overall market growth.

The changing landscape holds sustainability implications for business, cities, and the climate. Cleaner modes of travel, like cycling and electric vehicles, may help reduce emissions from vehicles. Services like ride-hailing, car-sharing, and subscription offerings may help reduce congestion and boost traffic flow, further reducing emissions from idling engines and increasing asset utilization. However, emissions could rise if these new services rely on gasoline-powered vehicles or energy drawn from high- emission sources.

New and developing technologies may also improve consumer experiences and safety. Smart parking integration into cities could save travelers time and money, while ADAS features could reduce accident rates and keep drivers, passengers, and pedestrians safe. In-vehicle services, ranging from enhanced vehicle connectivity to upgraded infotainment systems, could improve the experience and ease of driving a car.

Cities can strike the right balance in lowering carbon footprints and managing traffic flow if these services are integrated with public transit systems. Infrastructure improvements, cost-effective fares, and convenient connections for commuters to access a variety of services and modes will help.

It is key for cities to partner with the private sector to implement these changes, as the private sector can contribute data and cutting-edge technology for cities to implement on their streets. The mobility ecosystem is adapting to new consumer appetites and changes in regulation, opening the door for untraditional players like technology firms to offer whole new perspectives on tech-driven solutions for sustainable, efficient cities.

Public-private partnerships to implement new mobility solutions will reshape how we travel. The 2022 version of this report anticipated individual modes of travel as growth drivers of the mobility industry. Since then, the shift away from personal vehicles and the ascent of digital and asset-light services is poised to change commuter behaviors. Our analysis anticipates personal vehicles accounting for just under half of global modal mixes by 2035 — down from 66% in 2023. The share of sustainable options like public transport, micromobility, and shared mobility is expected to rise.

Asia leads among regions set to have the highest mobility growth

While worldwide growth is expected across all mobility sectors, it is uneven across mobility services and regions examined — North America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Asia is expected to have the fastest overall growth at a rate of 11%, thanks to a growing middle class, much of which live in dense cities with a lack of parking and high regulatory barriers to car ownership. That creates a significant opportunity for ride‑hailing and car-sharing and subscription providers to accommodate travel for consumers with increasing spending power. Asia’s early lead in electric vehicle adoption, with EVs becoming increasingly affordable, has created a significant need and potential for expanded charging services. Meanwhile, favorable government regulations and rapid technological advancement are giving ADAS services high headroom for growth.

Mature mobility markets in Europe and North America account for slower growth. Europe’s dense cities and low rates of car ownership leave room for car-sharing and subscription services to expand, but these services must compete against comprehensive public transit networks and the popularity of walking and cycling. North America’s low population density, long commutes, and relatively inadequate public transit all account for a cultural favor toward cars, which poses difficulties for micromobility services and some car-as-a-service providers. Like all other regions, North America and Europe will see the most growth in digital services — namely, in EV charging and ADAS services given maturing technology and regulatory pushes. The popularity of personal cars in North America will also enable higher growth in smart parking services.

Like North America, the Middle East is heavily dependent on cars. In Dubai, for example, more than 80% of all distances traveled was done via car, according to an Oliver Wyman Forum analysis. Car-sharing and subscription services in the Middle East are poised for high growth thanks to an already high rate of utilization that is forecasted to increase. Recent government policies in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to increase EV market share are set to grow the charging services market.

Africa’s mobility market is expected to grow at a rate of 8% annually thanks to emerging auto and micromobility markets, slightly above the global growth rate to 2035 of the subset of mobility sectors analyzed in Africa. With low rates of car ownership in Africa, ride-hailing and car rental, sharing, and subscription services all have strong growth potential compared to other regions given its lower market maturity and reduced access to these services. Low car ownership rates also enable a high expectation for micromobility services growth, particularly as micromobility habits are already deeply integrated into many of Africa’s cities.

Digital services like electric vehicle charging and advanced driver-assistance systems will lead global growth

Some of the strongest growth will come from digital services, which are expected to grow at an average of 25% a year. These are expected to be the three most impactful technologies for the mobility industry in the next decade:

Advanced driver-assistance systems

ADAS technologies are improving across the suite of services, from combined lane-assist and cruise control to fully autonomous driving. Consumer demand and government mandates allowing for expanded testing of advanced assistance systems and the commercial implementation of Level 3 systems are merging with advancing tech to give ADAS services the overall fastest growing mobility sector, skyrocketing from a $1.7 billion market in 2023 to a forecasted $307 billion by 2035, at a whopping 54% annual rate.

Most of the ADAS-related revenue today comes from what is known as Level 2 services, like cruise control and lane assist, which are cheaper than more robust autonomous capabilities. Our projections are focused on Level 2 and higher services that provide partial autonomous features, like steering, acceleration, and deceleration control. These services generate revenue through subscription services or one-time purchase fees. Level 3 offerings, in which cars can make informed decisions like moving past a slow-moving vehicle, are increasingly available in selected markets.

Many consumers are interested in these services. Nearly half of global consumers say they would definitely or probably use autonomous private cars and 43% are willing to pay a premium for autonomous transit, according to a June 2024 Oliver Wyman Forum survey. This willingness suggests that original equipment manufacturers can further their value propositions and revenue streams by offering autonomous services and add-ons.

Electric vehicle charging services

EV charging will be the overall highest driver of growth globally among all mobility services, rising an expected 32% annually to grow from $2.6 billion in 2023 to $72 billion in 2035. It is a forecasted windfall that reflects changing consumer appetites and strong regulatory pushes for expanded charging infrastructure. Nearly a quarter of consumers intending to purchase a car plan to make it an EV, according to a global Oliver Wyman Forum survey completed in June 2024.

Despite a slight decrease in EV demand seen in the first half of 2024, many governments are investing billions into charging infrastructure. The US has established a $5 billion National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program, for example, to build EV charging infrastructure along highways. Elsewhere, the European Union announced $1 billion in grant funds available for the installation of alternate fuel infrastructure.

The expected growth is also necessary to accommodate EVs that can travel further from one charge. Currently, EVs are driven shorter distances than gasoline-powered cars on average. This is likely due to a combination of the current profile of EV drivers, the selection of EVs for shorter trips, and the range limits of current models. As battery technology improves, trip distance will likely increase and create a demand for more charging infrastructure, particularly along highways.

The charging industry will likely see consolidations as larger players purchase smaller providers. Many providers are purchasing land for charging infrastructure, but capital used to purchase that land is beginning to dry, further fueling consolidation.

Charging providers will likely focus future growth on both public and ultra-fast “destination” charging, the latter of which allows shoppers at supermarkets and shopping centers to enjoy charging times as fast as 15 minutes while they shop. The need for public charging points will increase as EV penetration rises. As more consumers drive EVs, a growing percentage will live in apartments and lack access to a private, at-home charging point. Public charging infrastructure can serve these consumers’ needs.

In-vehicle digital services

In-vehicle digital services in cars are subscription and one-time purchase-based offerings that offer enhanced capabilities in the car, from advanced infotainment systems to Wi-Fi packages. These services do not include ADAS functionality, which is accounted for separately in this report. This market is projected to grow from $14.9 billion in 2023 to $181.8 billion by 2035 at a 23% annual rate.

Growing adoption in car fleets — particularly in Asia and North America — customer willingness, and cross-industry partnerships are driving growth. Eighty-two percent of consumers who have tried a subscription service said they would definitely or probably consider paying for the service on a future new vehicle purchase, according to an S&P Global mobility survey. Meanwhile, partnerships between automakers and telecommunication providers are enhancing connectivity that supports connected car services.

What this means for mobility players

Transformational shifts in consumer attitudes, technology adoption, and regulation will impact the mobility industry in the next decade. Industry players, from automakers to ride-hailing and bike-sharing providers, must act across three key principles to best capitalize on momentous growth.

Forge partnerships across sectors and governments

Government and industry leaders should work together to develop the right regulatory frameworks for the future of mobility. Emerging technologies like autonomous driving and air taxis, the spread of micromobility, and the growth of car-sharing and subscription services will likely need new regulations to ensure effective and safe integration into existing transportation systems and provide a reliable framework for long-term investments by service and tech providers.

Effective regulation will help the development and deployment of new mobility offerings by providing guardrails for the mobility industry to test and deploy new solutions. Autonomous driving, for example, will be a key area for new regulations, and governments can play an important role in shaping public perceptions and adoption of autonomous vehicles. Stricter safety regulations are the top factor for consumers to consider using autonomous vehicles, according to a 17-nation Oliver Wyman Forum survey completed in June 2024.

Government involvement also can provide a boon for providers looking for expansion. Consider charging services, which have enjoyed billions globally in government support that offered a launchpad for significant growth. Government investment in other areas of electrification and sustainable mobility, like micromobility infrastructure or car-sharing and pooling encouragement, could further slash carbon footprints for the industry.

Proactively working with governments can help mobility firms anticipate regulation. Many CEOs are preparing for increased government intervention in the economy, and more than three-quarters of them plan to adapt to this new environment in the next one to two years, according to a 2024 Oliver Wyman Forum survey of 112 CEOs of New York Stock Exchange-listed companies.

Mobility firms also should consider bringing unconventional players into their ecosystem. Partnerships between original equipment manufacturers, tech companies, and startups will be key in new spaces like in-car entertainment, advanced driver-assistance systems, and other in-vehicle digital services. Some of these partnerships will be out of necessity, as the trend away from vehicle ownership is forcing many mobility providers to use the expertise of those outside the industry to offer new offerings. 

Prepare for business models to change amid tech disruptions

Autonomous technology will be a defining shift in the mobility industry over the next decade. Robo- taxis are already on the streets in several North American and Asian cities, with more to follow.

Car-as-a-service offerings, for example, will likely shift to autonomous fleets for car rentals or subscriptions as the industry faces increasing competition from robo-taxi providers. And even sectors like micromobility could be impacted by autonomous technology, as cheaper ride-hailing options sap the market share from bike- and scooter-sharing.

Other tech shifts beyond autonomous vehicles will similarly shake the mobility ecosystem. Consider insurance companies, which will be far more impacted by the rise of connected vehicles and their data than autonomous vehicles. The insurance industry’s reaction to increasingly connected vehicles should be factored into strategic planning for many providers.

Capitalize on differing trends across regions

This report highlights how and why different mobility sectors will grow uniquely across five regions. Asia represents the largest and fastest growing market, driven by high digitization and popularity of alternatives to private car ownership; North America and Europe will be driven by digital services but see modest growth in other sectors like micromobility and car-as-a-service due to mature markets; and the Middle East and Africa will see the most growth in industries like micromobility and ride-hailing.

Within each of these regions, it is vital to acknowledge factors like existing mobility infrastructure maturity, the dominance of incumbent modes, and macroeconomic factors like the share of wallet in traveling from points A to B.

Mobility’s winners in the next decade will be those that understand the forces shaping mobility on a regional level and tailor their offerings and strategies to meet these demands.

Asia

Rapid industrialization, regulations to disincentivize personal car use, and a burgeoning middle class are fueling the highest overall mobility industry growth compared to any other region. Asia’s mobility market will grow by 11% annually, rising from $161 billion in 2023 to $573 billion by 2035. Asia’s mobility sector will be driven by rapid growth in car-as- a-service, micromobility, and digital services that accommodate the region’s preference for convenient travel and charging technologies to serve a high market share of electric vehicles.

Asia accounted for 41% of the global mobility market captured in this report in 2023. That share will rise to 50% by 2035.

Asia has potential for further growth

Car-as-a-service

The Asian car-as-a-service industry can serve a growing middle class with convenient travel in dense cities as car ownership in many cities is restrictive. Car ownership is low in Singapore, for example, in part because of the $76,000 license that residents must pay to obtain the right to purchase a vehicle. And while some Asian cities like Hong Kong have comprehensive public transit infrastructure, those without will not be able to build it fast enough to keep up with rising mobility demand. Mobility services provide easier solutions for cash-strapped governments.

The car rental market will likely grow from $28 billion in 2023 to $79 billion by 2035 at a 9% annual rate. Car-as-a-service is growing due to high barriers of car ownership in Asia, and rentals are currently the dominant and most traditional alternative. An expected tourism increase will drive rental market growth, as car subscriptions and sharing are generally longer-term commitments. Tourism in Japan, for example, is expected to surpass 155% of pre-COVID levels by 2026.

Car subscription services already are popular in Asia. Roughly 36% of consumers on average from Australia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, and Singapore reported using car subscriptions — higher than the 22% global average, according to a June 2024 Oliver Wyman Forum survey. The car subscription market is expected to rise 8% annually, increasing from $1.7 billion in 2023 to $4.3 billion by 2035.

Consumers are similarly enthusiastic about car-sharing, as nearly half of survey respondents said they used a car-sharing service, while the global average was just 32%. India and Indonesia had particularly high usage rates, where 75% and 56% respectively said they used a car-sharing service in a June 2024 Oliver Wyman Forum survey. Car-sharing is projected to grow from $4.2 billion in 2023 to $7.1 billion in 2035 at a 4% annual rate.

Ride-hailing and carpooling

Asia represents the largest market for ride-hailing services, with significant potential to stretch even further. Like car- as-a-service, barriers to car ownership and a lack of parking similarly account for the growth of hailed and on-demand services. But regulatory, business, and technological factors can also account for the market’s headroom.

Consider India, where a 2020 ban on hundreds of Chinese apps has nurtured a flourishing localized mobility services industry. Indeed, funding for Indian mobility services startups rose to $1.7 billion in 2023, up from $1 billion in 2022. The Indian mobility services market now represents 69% of Asian mobility services.

Asia’s super-app model — in which one app combines various services from mobility services like ride-hailing to texting and mobile payments — offers a frictionless way to use ride-hailing or other services. WeChat, China’s most popular super-app, has a ride-hailing function that aggregates several third- party ride-hailing providers.

Asian consumers also enjoy more affordable prices compared to other regions, typically paying an average of just $1.48 per mile, compared to $3.77 per mile in Europe and $2.87 per mile in North America.

Convenience and affordability help fuel ride-hailing’s massive popularity in Asia. Nearly three-quarters of consumers from Australia, Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Singapore reported using a ride-hailing service in a June 2024 survey — a rate roughly 30 percentage points higher than the global average of 43%. It is a usage rate that reflects a much larger market size than in other regions: An estimated 1 billion consumers use ride-hailing services in Asia, compared to only 135 million in North America and 161 million in Europe. Asia’s ride-hailing market is expected to increase from $98 billion in 2023 to $150 billion by 2035 at a 3.6% annual rate, reflecting the region’s high population growth rate — although there is a sharp regional contrast between developed metropolitan areas and underdeveloped rural areas where mobility services have no or low presence.

While ride-hailing growth continues, the industry’s tech transformation is paused until autonomous driving is broadly introduced. Robo-taxis will offer cheaper prices for consumers as labor costs are lowered for providers, enabling higher usage rates. But that increase in usage will not raise overall revenue for providers, as the price for consumers will decrease greatly and will not be fully offset by an expected increased volume of rides. However, ride-hailing providers will likely see additional marketing revenue opportunities as the technology for in-car entertainment and advertising becomes more widespread. The taxi and ride-hailing players with the highest capacity to offer technology like robo-taxis and in-car entertainment will be the winners in a pivoting industry.

Carpooling will likely grow from just $1.2 billion in 2023 to $1.7 billion by 2035 at a 3% growth rate. Slow growth is likely due to practical challenges the service faces, like delays due to multiple passengers, safety and trust in sharing a ride with strangers, and integration with existing infrastructure for pickups and drop-offs.

Micromobility services

Micromobility is deeply ingrained in Asian culture, particularly in Southeast Asia. Moped-sharing is popular in India and Indonesia, where respectively 89% and 95% of consumers said they used a service in a June 2024 survey. And more than a third on average of those from Australia, Hong Kong, and India reported using any kind of shared micromobility mode. Affordable rates also may be driving many consumers to these services: An average bike-sharing ride in Asia costs $0.19, compared to $6.79 in North America and $1.24 in Europe.

Regulation also is facilitating higher growth as some governments are investing in micromobility infrastructure. Singapore’s “Friendly Streets” initiative, for example, plans to repurpose some roads to accommodate cyclists, while Manilla plans to build nearly 1,500 miles of bike lanes by 2028. And Seoul’s 2030 mobility plan aims to expand cycling paths with traffic management systems dedicated to active mobility modes.

Cycling has been popular in China for decades, and the government has bolstered bike lane infrastructure across many cities to keep riders safe from traffic. However, parking regulations are lacking in many parts of Asia, including major cities like Beijing. That creates problems for cyclists as bike lanes may be blocked. Increased parking regulation could help cycling’s modal share grow even further. The bike-sharing market will likely rise from $7 billion in 2023 to $18 billion by 2035 at an 8% growth rate.

Moped-sharing in Asia is expected to show significant growth with a 7% compound annual growth rate through 2035, growing from $1.8 billion in revenue in 2023 to $3.9 billion in 2035. This is the highest growth of any region, and the only region expected to see significant growth thanks to mopeds’ entrenched use in many Asian countries. Moped-sharing is typically low-cost. The service’s ability to use existing infrastructure and, in some countries, to grant permission to low-power drivers without a license makes it a convenient and affordable option for many.

Fewer people in Asia use electric scooters than in North America and Europe despite its larger population. Despite this, there are still drivers of growth: Demand for short-haul trips and the service’s penetration in South Korea, for example, will expand the market. Revenues are forecast to rise from $573 million in 2023 to $992 million in 2030 and $1.5 billion in 2035.

Digital services

Smartphones are becoming increasingly commonplace throughout Asia as widespread adoption in rural areas combined with a rising middle class that gains more spending power creates large potential for digital services like smart parking. Meanwhile, an increase in electric vehicle market share necessitates an expanding charging services market. 

Advanced driver-assistance systems

Rising incomes, favorable government regulations, and rapid technological advancements are enabling Asia’s ADAS market to grow 56% annually, from $798 million in 2023 to a likely $170 billion by 2035. Over half of consumers from Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, and Singapore said they would pay a premium to use autonomous transit — higher than the global average of 43% who said the same. Those from India and Indonesia were the most willing of any Asian country, with 72% and 57% willing to pay a premium, respectively.

Some governments continue to experiment with advancing autonomous technologies: China in June 2024 approved nine automakers to test vehicles with advanced autonomous driving systems on public roads in which drivers can take their hands off steering wheels (Level 3), while Japan allowed in 2023 self-driving vehicles on public roads under certain conditions. Our analysis forecasts that roughly four out of five cars in Asia will offer paid smart technology — from advanced cruise control to lane-keeping features — by 2035, and that car owners will increasingly pay for these offerings.

Creating stricter safety standards will help adoption of autonomous features and vehicles, as nearly 70% of Asian consumers said that safety standards are the top factor affecting their willingness to use autonomous vehicles.

Electric vehicle charging services

China is a global hub for EV adoption, with just under 60% of new electric vehicle registrations located in China in 2023, with EV new vehicle registrations surpassing ICE sales for the first time in China in August 2024. And EV sales are rising throughout Southeast Asian countries like India, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand — the latter of which reached a 10% sales share in 2023, a similar share to that of the Unite States, according to the International Energy Agency. These market shifts have given Asia the largest EV fleet.

A widening market share in Asia is in part fueling a charging services industry that’s expected to grow from $1.9 billion in 2023 to $27 billion by 2035 at a 25% annual rate.

Some Asian governments have long-term visions to support expanded charging infrastructure. Hong Kong’s government plans include a $2 billion subsidy package for installing charging points in existing private residential buildings and at parking spaces for new government buildings, while Singapore aims for 60,000 charging points by 2030.

The broader EV ecosystem — from raw material miners to battery manufacturers and recyclers — is also expanding through a surge in venture capital into startups that support the full battery lifecycle. China has historically been a leader in this space, as the country’s startups collected $5.3 billion in funding between 2021 and 2023 — although Japan’s automakers are investing heavily in all-solid-state battery technologies. Some of Asia’s incumbent players are joining with other institutions to explore battery technology, as one large automaker in 2023 partnered with Seoul National University to launch a battery research center.

In-vehicle digital services

Asia’s growth in in-vehicle digital services is driven by consumer demographics and demand, as well as corporate partnerships. Asia has a large passenger fleet, creating a significant market for these services as connectivity offerings are a key part of car purchasing decisions in parts of the region, like China. Countries like China also feature high average monthly subscription rates for in-vehicle digital services, in part due to a growing middle class with increased purchasing power able to pay a premium for advanced services. 

Partnerships between original equipment manufacturers and large telecom providers are also ensuring connectivity across the Asia-Pacific region to meet this demand. For instance, one Chinese auto manufacturer offers a service that connects smartphones as a companion device to vehicles, and another automaker offers an infotainment system that includes streaming services.

The in-vehicle digital services market will likely rise from $6.6 billion in 2023 to $93 billion by 2035 at a 25% annual rate.

Smart parking

Smart parking in Asia is currently a small part of the global market, at just 1% of 2023 global revenues. The small size is in part due to Asia’s immature parking regulations. There are many unregulated and free parking spaces coupled with low compliance rates and parking regulations. This leads to underutilized off-street parking, as most parking is done on-street. In addition, there are no requirements for property developers to meet minimum parking standards in construction, making issues of illegal parking worse in many cases. This problem is exacerbated by the rapid driver population growth currently underway in Asia.

In China, for instance, there are minimal parking fees, and more than 50% of parking spaces don’t charge fees at all, even in cities. In India, there are similarly minimal parking fees and a lack of clear demarcation of on‑street parking that is further complicated by statutes providing space to street vendors.

However, these same barriers highlight the promise of smart parking as a path to improved parking regulation in Asia, and the small size of the current industry means there is significant room for growth. Smart parking is expected to see a 25% compound annual growth rate through 2035, reaching an $862 million industry. Cities like Beijing are already making strides in parking digitization and enforcement. Beijing has implemented a parking management system that uses intelligent parking cameras to document parked vehicles and alert authorities in cases of non-payment or illegal parking.

Navigation services

The market for smartphone apps that provide navigational services will see moderate growth due to increased smartphone penetration and a growing population, likely rising from $7.9 billion in 2023 to $12.9 billion by 2035 at a 4% annual rate. These expectations are above the population growth rate of 0.6% as smartphones continue to become commonplace. While overall usage and demand will increase steadily, monetizing the surplus in demand and developing new revenue streams will remain challenging for providers.

Africa

Africa is an emerging mobility market with high potential for growth in digital services, car-as-a- service, ride-hailing, and micromobility. This is fueled by a rising middle class and increasing digitization and technology penetration amid a rapid expansion of these immature industries. Given data limitations, our model does not highlight the growth of some digital services like advanced driver assistance or smart parking technologies — a large driver of growth in other regions. These factors are coalescing to grow the continent’s mobility market by 8% annually — the same rate as Asia when accounting for sectors covered in Africa.

The African mobility market is expected to rise from $6.9 billion in 2023 to $18 billion by 2035, making up 2% of the global market when accounting for the sectors analyzed in Africa. The region has an opportunity to leapfrog typical mobility ecosystem development by designing an infrastructure that emphasizes safe, sustainable, and equitably shared mobility services rather than traditional car ownership.

Africa has potential for further growth

Car-as-a-service

Car subscriptions, rentals, and sharing services all show strong growth potential compared to other regions thanks to a lower market maturity and their attractiveness in offering a more affordable cost of entry than personal car ownership. Some African countries are also building more comprehensive road networks, likely making these services more convenient to use.

Egypt, for example, is in ongoing development of the Greater Cairo Ring Road project, which will expand road lanes in each direction to improve traffic flow in the Cairo area. Nairobi, meanwhile, aims to build or rehabilitate 3,400 miles of roads as part of its Vision 2030 program.

Car subscription usage rates are moderate in Africa, with 30% of South African consumers reporting use in a June 2024 Oliver Wyman Forum survey — higher than the global average of 22%. The car subscription market is expected to rise from $57 million in 2023 to $103 million by 2035 at a 5% annual rate.

Several factors are contributing to the car rental market’s growth: Tourism and business travel will grow in the short term as the post-pandemic rebound continues, while many rental companies are updating their fleets with connected car technologies and advanced services to improve the customer experience and partnering with ride-hailing companies to offer long-term deals to consumers. And like car subscriptions, long-term rentals are also gaining popularity as an alternative to ownership as the cost of living increases in many areas. Africa’s car rental market will likely grow from $4.1 billion in 2023 to $7.4 billion by 2035.

Africa has a low number of car-sharing users compared to other regions — although some countries see higher than average usage. More than half of South Africans reported using the service, while the global average was just 32%, according to a June 2024 Oliver Wyman Forum survey. The car-sharing market is projected to double, from $6 million in 2023 to $12 million in 2035 at a 6% annual rate.

Ride-hailing

Ride-hailing is expected to grow in Africa at a far faster pace than the global rate — 8% in Africa compared to just 2.1% globally — due to an immature market compared to other regions. While ride-hailing growth continues, the industry’s tech transformation is paused until autonomous driving is broadly introduced. Robo-taxis will offer cheaper prices for consumers as labor costs are lowered for providers, enabling higher usage rates. But that increase in usage will not raise overall revenue for providers, as the price for consumers will decrease greatly and will not be fully offset by an expected increased volume of rides. However, ride-hailing providers will likely see additional marketing revenue opportunities as the technology for in-car entertainment and advertising becomes more widespread. The taxi and ride-hailing players with the highest capacity to offer technology like robo-taxis and in-car entertainment will be the winners in a pivoting industry.

After the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for ride-hailing services in Africa grew rapidly and outpaced the supply of drivers. This led to increased prices and longer wait times for passengers that will limit further growth until there are more drivers available.

Yet shared mobility jobs are expected to have the strongest growth in Africa, increasing 113% between 2023 and 2030, and are giving the market a more comfortable equilibrium that potentially creates better experiences for riders and earnings for drivers.

The cost of living also has increased in many parts of Africa, leading ride-hailing companies to focus on offering lower-cost products like carpooling and motorbike hails that still feature a driver.

One potential barrier to ride-hailing growth has been the imposition of ride-hailing commission caps in some countries, including Kenya. Some mobility leaders reportedly say that these commission caps reduce the amount of revenue they can generate, and in turn their ability to scale operations in new areas, placing unnatural limits on the market. Proponents of these policies argue that they protect consumers from increasing prices.

Another method to promote shared mobility is via public-private partnerships. The Lagos State Government, for example, rolled out 1,000 ride-hailing cars as part of its “Lagos Ride” initiative in collaboration with a Chinese car manufacturer and large mobility service provider. Lagos in particular is a melting pot for global mobility service providers.

The African ride-hailing market is expected to climb from $1.8 billion in 2023 to $4.7 billion by 2035 at an 8% annual rate.

Micromobility services

Bike- and scooter-sharing both show strong potential for growth in Africa, boosted by recent micromobility adoption, as commuters avoided public transit during the pandemic, and dedicated investments in road infrastructure and safety. That rise in demand enabled many micromobility providers to enter the market. Industry consolidation is expected to continue, as there were more than 10 platforms in Africa for micromobility and ride-hailing in 2017. Now only a handful remain. That consolidation will provide more standardized offerings for consumers and may help drive penetration across Africa as large players look to expand from major urban areas.

Growth also will be driven by regulation from some African governments to make micromobility safer and more convenient, as many African streets are dominated by speeding cars and lack sufficient sidewalks or cycle paths. Kenya’s 2023 – 2027 Road Safety Plan, for example, calls for cycle path development and greater traffic and speed-limit harmony with motorized modes. And Cape Town’s 2023 – 2028 plan aims to improve access to bicycles and provide more cycling infrastructure. As the infrastructure develops, bike-sharing could gain prevalence over other modes like ride-hailing, short-distance rides in private cars, and motorcycling as commuters look for more affordable modes as the cost of living rises.

And some bike-sharing apps like AWA are trying to change perceptions of biking in places like Lagos, where it is seeking collaboration with the state government and is addressing women’s safety concerns. The bike-sharing market is projected to grow from $57 million in 2023 to $180 million by 2035 at a 10% annual rate.

The scooter-sharing market is forecasted to double from $2.1 million in 2023 to $4.2 million in 2035 at a 6% annual rate.

Digital services

While the digital services market is small compared to other regions, there is a high headroom for growth — particularly in charging services as electric vehicles become more ingrained throughout Africa and with smartphone penetration constantly increasing.

Electric vehicle charging services

The expansion of charging services in Africa is being driven by both industry and government activities. Some Chinese EV manufacturers, for example, are reportedly accelerating their entry into the African market amid trade tensions with Europe, while one Kenyan company is offering e-buses to East African operators as an alternative to their diesel fleets. And while sub-Saharan Africa has shown some of the lowest rates of EV transition, there is promising movement: South Africa saw a 47.1% year-over-year rise in EV sales in 2023.

Government activities are encouraging as well. Lagos’ Metropolitan Area Transport Authority has partnered with energy company Oando Clean Energy to offer e-buses, while Egyptian officials in 2024 announced a domestic manufacturing process for EVs, and Rwanda introduced policies like rent-free land for charging stations and reduced tariffs for EVs.

The charging services market will likely rise from $213,000 in 2023 to $16 million by 2035 at a 43% annual rate, accounting for a slow start and an inflection point a couple of years down the road.

In-vehicle digital services

Growth in on-demand services will come from an increased adoption of the technology in Africa’s car fleets. Our analysis forecasts that a growing number of cars will offer paid smart technology with similar customer adoption by 2035 as seen in other regions. Original equipment managers will continue to expand their on-demand offerings and benefit from new revenue streams.

The in-vehicle digital services market is expected to grow from $363 million in 2023 to $4.6 billion by 2035 at a 24% annual rate.

Navigation services

Moderate growth in navigation services can be attributed to increased internet penetration and growing population size — the latter rate being 2.26%, with the expectation that average revenues will increase per user. The market is poised to increase from $465 million in 2023 to $1.1 billion by 2035 at a 7% annual rate.

Europe

Driven by growing adoption of electric vehicles, digital services like advanced driver-assistance systems, EV charging services, and smart parking give Europe the second fastest-growing mobility market after Asia. Strong regulations to decarbonize mobility are increasing an already high rate of EV ownership and micromobility, while safety regulations are making advanced driver-assistance features mandatory in cars. European cities are often dense, with comprehensive public transit and cycling infrastructures that will lead to slow growth in services like ride-hailing and car rental, sharing, and subscription.

Europe’s overall mobility market will likely rise from $92 billion in 2023 to $246 billion in 2035 at a 9% annual rate. Europe will account for 22% of the global mobility market by 2035.

Europe is well positioned for micromobility

Car-as-a-service

Car ownership levels are steadily rising in Europe, climbing 14% from 2012 to 2022, but its cities have high levels of public transit usage and consistently invest in its improvement, drawing commuters from other modes. Zurich’s public transit system, for example, accounts for 41% of total transportation volume, while Stockholm keeps public transit fares low and has reduced walking distances to stations and transit travel times.

Yet there will still be modest growth in car-as-a-service sectors thanks to increasing post-pandemic travel in the short term and increasing costs and inconveniences of car ownership in the long term, including the reduction of public parking spaces. Consumers reported higher rates of car-sharing in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom in June 2024 compared to April 2023, according to an Oliver Wyman Forum survey. Car-sharing is expected to rise from a $4.9 billion market in 2023 to $7 billion by 2035 with a 3% annual growth rate.

While the car subscription market is set for a higher growth rate than is car-sharing, Europe’s car subscription startups saw a reduction in funding in 2023, according to an Oliver Wyman analysis, and the region’s market is more mature than in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Germany offers a market with a relatively large number of car subscription customers, where some studies suggest that the subscription model will account for up to 40% of the market share by 2030. 

Indeed, 16% of German consumers reported using a car subscription, up from 11% in April 2023, according to a June 2024 Oliver Wyman Forum survey. The European car subscription market will likely grow from $1.4 billion in 2023 to $2.9 billion in 2035 with a 6% annual growth rate.

Europe has a mature car rental market, and there are many alternatives for long-distance travel, such as high-speed trains. Still, short-term rentals will increase as the classic rental business continues to digitize and travel rebounds from the pandemic. The car rental market is forecasted to increase from $11.7 billion in 2023 to $21.2 billion in 2035 with a 5% annual growth rate.

Ride-hailing and carpooling

Comprehensive and affordable public transit networks challenge ride-hailing’s room for growth in Europe. But ride-hailing providers that integrate themselves into existing mobility infrastructure can protect themselves against being cannibalized by other modes.

The ride-hailing market will have the slowest growth compared to any other mobility service, inching from a $59 billion market in 2023 to a projected $62 billion by 2035 at a 0.5% annual rate.

While ride-hailing growth continues, the industry’s tech transformation is paused until autonomous driving is broadly introduced. Robo-taxis will offer cheaper prices for consumers as labor costs are lowered for providers, enabling higher usage rates. But that increase in usage will not raise overall revenue for providers, as the price for consumers will decrease greatly and will not be fully offset by an expected increased volume of rides.

However, ride-hailing providers will see additional marketing revenue opportunities as the technology for in-car entertainment and advertising becomes more widespread. The taxi and ride-hailing players with the highest capacity to offer technology like robo-taxis and in-car entertainment will be the winners in a pivoting industry. That said, European consumers have been trending toward ride-hailing: There was at least a 10% increase of those in France, Germany, Italy, and the UK who reported using a ride-hail service between April 2023 and June 2024, according to an Oliver Wyman Forum survey.

Carpooling is uncommon in Europe, as many consumers can afford more private and convenient travel modes. There’s potential for growth, particularly in rural areas, but it is expected to remain a relatively small market, rising from $334 million in 2023 to $476 million in 2035 at a 3% growth rate. Further growth can be fueled by initiatives like France’s 2023 plan to offer a roughly $100 premium for drivers who begin short-distance carpooling.

Micromobility services

Cycling is deeply ingrained in European culture, as dense cities and moderate trip distances make it and other micromobility solutions ideal for many commuters. And many cities with existing strong micromobility infrastructures are doubling down on even further expansions in tandem with carbon emissions goals.

Consider Amsterdam, commonly referred to as a world capital of cycling. The city government will soon expand cycling lanes and parking availability with the goal of having the mode account for 35% of all trips by 2030. Government pushes for active mobility are in part driving Europe’s bike-sharing growth from $532 million in 2023 to $1.3 billion in 2035 with an 8% annual growth rate.

Scooter-sharing is predicted to rise from a $743 million market in 2023 to a $1.1 billion market by 2035 at a 4% growth rate. Yet while there is room for growth, regulatory challenges remain in some markets. Paris, for example, banned e-scooter rental services in September 2023 after congestion and safety concerns, while the Berlin Senate Administration limited the number of e-scooters in Berlin’s S-Bahn ring. Meanwhile, funding to European scooter startups dropped off, falling from $800 million in 2022 to zero in 2023, according to an Oliver Wyman analysis.

Europe is home to the second largest market for moped-sharing and several top global providers. Madrid, Paris, and Milan are among the biggest moped-sharing cities globally with fleet sizes around 5,000 to 7,500 each. However, moped ridership in Europe has fallen by 5% from Q1 2022 to Q1 2023. Though we expect the number of users to stay stagnant from 2023 to 2030, the average revenue per user is expected to increase.

Collaborations with other organizations and expanded availability and convenience can help fuel growth. One European mobility provider launched e-bikes in Sligo, a small Irish town, along with a wide range of parking locations built in collaboration with local businesses. More convenient parking infrastructure led to Bolt’s Sligo operation seeing significantly above-average utilization rates.

But like ride-hailing and car-as-a-service options, micromobility providers will have to compete with Europe’s comprehensive public transit systems and high rates of personal bike, moped, and scooter ownership.

Digital services

Strong, yet expanding electric vehicle penetration, advancing technology, and European Union mandates for more safety features are contributing to rapid growth of digital services like EV charging, advanced driver-assistance systems, and in-vehicle digital services.

Advanced driver-assistance systems

No other mobility service will have nearly as high of a growth rate in Europe as ADAS, projected to rise from a $327 million market in 2023 to $54 billion by 2035 at a 53% annual rate. A mix of regulatory pushes, advancing technology, and industry investments are driving sector growth.

The European Commission mandated that all new road vehicles must have advanced driver-assistance systems like intelligent speed assistance, reversing direction with cameras or sensors, drowsiness or distraction warnings, event data recorders, and emergency stop signals as of July 2024. Separately, the UK government in May 2024 passed a law that enables self-driving vehicles to drive on British roads by 2026, while Germany in 2022 hosted Europe’s first sale of cars with the ability for hands-off automated driving in traffic.

Funding for connected and self-driving vehicle startups in Europe rose to $1.6 billion in 2023, as the UK jockeys for prominence as an autonomous vehicle hub after China and the United States, according to an Oliver Wyman analysis.

Yet regulators and businesses may still need to foster consumer acceptance. An average of 36% of those from France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK said they would definitely or probably use autonomous transit. That’s below the 46% global average of consumers who said the same, according to a June 2024 Oliver Wyman Forum survey. European consumers listed stricter safety as the top factor that would make them more likely to use autonomous vehicles.

Electric vehicle charging services

Europe enjoys a large and increasing market share of electric vehicles. New electric vehicle registrations climbed to more than 3 million in 2023, an increase of 20% from 2022. And nearly a quarter of consumers in France, Germany, Italy, and the UK say they plan to buy an EV as their next car, according to a June 2024 Oliver Wyman Forum survey, despite a slowdown in EV sales in early 2024. Charging services will need to expand to serve an increasing number of EVs. The distance commuters travel as EV battery technology improves will likely increase, further driving the need for more charging infrastructure — particularly along highways.

Strong regulation at all tiers of government is enabling that expansion. The European Commission announced in 2024 a $1 billion grant to support electric and hydrogen refueling infrastructure, while a ban on fossil fuel car sales is mandated by 2035. At a more localized level, many countries and cities have their own mandates to expand charging stations. Amsterdam, for example, aims to have more than 80,000 charging points by 2030 — up from the 9,600 charging points that it had in 2020 — while Finland allocated $14 million in 2023 in part to support more public and private charging points.

The electric charging services market is expected to grow from $471 million in 2023 to $35 billion by 2035 at a 43% annual rate.

In-vehicle digital services

The significant growth in on-demand services is due to the increased adoption of the technology across Europe’s car fleets: Roughly four in five cars will offer paid smart technology — allowing consumers to buy, for example, upgradable infotainment systems — by 2035, according to our analysis. Consumers will likely be increasingly willing to pay for these offerings, and original equipment manufacturers will gain new revenue streams.

The in-vehicle digital services market is expected to rise from $4.1 billion in 2023 to $44 billion by 2035 at a 23% annual rate.

Smart parking

Europe is the leading region in smart parking payment services, and digitization is now mature in countries such as Estonia, the Netherlands, and Sweden. In Nordic cities like Copenhagen, Oslo, Stockholm, and Helsinki, 90% to 95% of residents use a parking app. Growth will come from the digitization of still- maturing markets such as Italy and Spain.

The smart parking market is expected to grow from $4 billion in 2023 to $12 billion by 2035 at a 10% annual rate.

Navigation services

A stagnant navigational services market can be attributed to the sector’s maturity and the dominance of a few players, as well as the overarching difficulty of monetizing these services as the general willingness to pay is low. The market is expected to remain at $3.7 billion from 2023 to 2035, with any uptick in line with a population growth rate of 0.01%.

Middle East

The Middle East is an emerging mobility market with a strong car-centric culture. That gives headway for outsized growth in services that prioritize cars, like EV charging services, car subscriptions, and on-demand services. Given data limitations, our model does not highlight the growth of advanced driver-assistance systems, moped-sharing, carpooling, and smart parking in the Middle East — some of which are large drivers of growth in other regions. Factoring out those services gives the Middle East’s overall mobility market a growth rate of just 4% annually through 2035 — a rate on par with North America — compared to the 6% global average.

The Middle East’s mobility market will rise from $11 billion in 2023 to $18 billion by 2035, accounting for 2% of the global market when accounting for mobility sectors with comparable data.

Middle East has potential for further growth

Car-as-a-service 

The Middle East’s emphasis on cars holds promise for car-as-a-service providers, driven by high utilization of car-sharing and subscription services. An average of 67% of consumers from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reported using a car-sharing service in June 2024 — much higher than the global average of 32%. The car-sharing market is expected to rise from $294 million in 2023 to $499 million in 2035 at a 4% growth rate.

Car subscriptions are also popular in the Middle East, with 58% of those in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reporting using the service in June 2024, a substantially higher rate than the 22% global average that said the same. The car subscription market will likely grow from $94 million in 2023 to $236 million by 2035 at an 8% annual rate — the highest rate among car-as-a-service modes.

The car rental market is projected to grow from $542 million in 2023 to $772 million by 2035 at a 3% annual rate.

Some Middle Eastern governments are expanding their road networks, which may make car rentals or subscriptions more convenient and attractive for consumers. Qatar, for example, is expanding its Al Wakra Main Road, a major avenue connecting Doha to the coastal city of Al Wakra, to increase capacity by 50%. Elsewhere, Bahrain in 2022 developed and improved 90 miles of roads to boost connectivity.

Ride-hailing  

Despite the small market size, ride-hailing and taxis are popular in the region: 83% of Saudis and 77% of Emiratis reported using a ride-hailing service or taxi in June 2024 — both rates much higher than the 43% global average.

Yet some regulatory struggles remain, not unlike what is seen in other regions like Europe. Key regulatory barriers include the overall limitation of vehicles and licenses in the region. Still, the ride-hailing market is projected to grow as the industry consolidates in the Middle East from $8 billion in 2023 to $10.2 billion by 2035 at a 2% growth rate.

While ride-hailing growth continues, the industry’s tech transformation is paused until autonomous driving is broadly introduced. Robo-taxis will offer cheaper prices for consumers as labor costs are lowered for providers, enabling higher usage rates. But that increase in usage will not raise overall revenue for providers, as the price for consumers will decrease greatly and will not be fully offset by an expected increased volume of rides. However, ride-hailing providers will see additional marketing revenue opportunities as the technology for in-car entertainment and advertising becomes more widespread. The taxi and ride-hailing players with the highest capacity to offer technology like robo-taxis and in-car entertainment will be the winners in a pivoting industry.

Micromobility services

The micromobility market is relatively small in the Middle East but shows potential for growth thanks to enthusiastic consumers and government investments. Roughly 55% of those from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia said they used a micromobility service in a June 2024 survey — more than double that of the global average of 24%.

Some governments are investing to make micromobility more attractive for residents. Dubai’s 2040 plan, for example, plans for a “20-minute city” in which residents can reach their destinations via micromobility, while Bahrain has plans to develop a network of cycling lanes throughout the country. Some government initiatives are also addressing the viability of micromobility in the Middle East’s hot climate. Dubai has plans for a roughly 58-mile, climate-controlled cycling highway called “The Loop.”

Middle Eastern consumers face higher prices than those in Europe or Asia, paying $5.45 on average per ride. Still, the sector will grow. The bike-sharing market will likely rise from $87 million in 2023 to $272 million in 2035 at a 10% annual growth rate, while scooter-sharing is forecasted to increase from $50 million in 2023 to $101 million in 2035 at 6% annually.

Digital services

Advanced driver-assistance systems

Consumer sentiment and government initiatives are promising for the sector’s growth: 53% of Saudis and 56% of Emiratis said they would definitely or probably use autonomous transit. They are also the most likely among consumers from 15 other nations to pay a premium to use autonomous services, according to a June 2024 Oliver Wyman Forum survey. 

Some Middle Eastern governments are also investing in autonomous capabilities: In August 2023, Abu Dhabi announced that its self-driving taxi fleet — the first in the United Arab Emirates — completed 17,000 passenger journeys as of November 2022, while Dubai aims to automate a quarter of all transportation, including metro, buses, and taxis, by 2030.

Electric vehicle charging services

Charging services are set to have the highest growth of any other mobility service in the Middle East thanks to a blend of geopolitical and macroeconomic forces. In a region long dominated by the oil industry, electric vehicles are increasingly seen as a new way to create jobs and diversify the economy. Meanwhile, strengthening ties between Asia and the Middle East are giving the latter more access to China’s strong EV sector. Some Chinese EV brands are leading exporters to and burgeoning investors in the Middle East. And without local automakers to protect, the Middle East is more open to EV imports and investments from Asia.

Middle Eastern governments are likewise investing in electrified mobility. The United Arab Emirates, for example, partnered with Etihad Water and Electricity to provide a government-owned, nation-wide network of 1,000 fast-charging stations by 2030; while separately aiming for EVs to account for 50% of vehicles on the road by 2050. Qatar aims to have a fully electric bus fleet by 2030, while Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund launched an EV infrastructure company to install more than 5,000 charging stations across the country by 2030.

More charging infrastructure will likely convince consumers to transition to EVs, as roughly half of Emiratis and Saudis cited charging station availability as the top factor influencing EV purchase decisions in a June 2024 Oliver Wyman Forum survey.

The charging services market is expected to increase from just $5.6 million in 2023 to $145 million by 2035 at a 31% annual rate.

In-vehicle digital services

Significant growth in the in-vehicle digital services market can be attributed to an increased adoption of the technology across the region’s car fleet. Our analysis predicts that a growing number of cars will offer paid smart technology, with customers adopting these services in tandem by 2035. Consumer willingness and technology penetration will create new revenue streams for original equipment manufacturers and service providers. The market is predicted to rise from $265 million in 2023 to $3.4 billion by 2035 at a 24% annual rate.

Navigation services

The Middle East will see moderate growth in navigation services, attributed to increased smartphone penetration and a growing population. The navigation services industry will likely grow from $1.5 billion in 2023 to $2.4 billion by 2035 at a 4% annual rate.

North America

North America’s car-centric culture, sparse public transit, long commute distances, and sprawling cities are fueling the most growth in digital services that cater to private cars. Advanced driver-assist systems, EV charging services, and smart parking will have the most growth among the region in an otherwise sluggish forecast. With an overall mobility market rising by 8% annually, North America only ranks higher than the Middle East in terms of growth rate due to an already mature market.

North America accounted for 31% of the mobility market in 2023 when it totaled $119 billion, and is projected to slip to 25% of that share in 2035 when the market will grow to $285 billion.

Car services are an essential driver of growth in North America

Car-as-a-service

Cars are the dominant mode in North America. An average of 92% of consumers reported using a personal car, according to a June 2024 Oliver Wyman Forum survey, reflecting population density sprawled over large countries with relatively sparse public transit to serve them. And while car-as-a-service providers are entrenched in a mature market without much room for growth, a shift away from car ownership among urbanites may fuel growth.

Car rental is popular in North America, accounting for 42% of North America’s consumer mobility spending on mobility modes in 2023. That mature market leaves room for only modest growth, and three major players dominate the vast majority of the airport and off-airport markets. North America’s car rental market is projected to rise 3% annually, from $46 billion in 2023 to $66 billion 2035.

Car subscriptions and sharing could be a popular option for city residents who find it inconvenient to own a car, but providers may have to first increase awareness. Many car subscription providers in North America are not yet profitable due to high customer acquisition costs and the new nature of the sector. The car subscription market is expected to grow from $2 billion in 2023 to $5 billion by 2035 at an 8% annual rate.

Some North American cities are integrating car-sharing into their broader mobility plans. BlueLA, for example, is a partnership between Los Angeles and California authorities to provide a shared EV fleet, while Vancouver advertises car-share vehicles available near other transit hubs. While adoption is currently low in the US and Canada — 25% and 22% of residents report car sharing, respectively — half of Mexican consumers report usage. The car-sharing market is expected to grow from $3 billion in 2023 to $5 billion by 2035 at a 3% annual rate.

Nearly a quarter of consumers on average from the US, Canada, and Mexico reported using car subscription services in a June 2024 survey — an increased average from the 15% average that said the same in April 2023. And while relatively high pricing and stricter regulations pose challenges for providers, the appeal of flexibility and convenience in comparison to owning a car is poised to fuel growth. The car subscription market is expected to rise from $2.2 billion in 2023 to attract revenues of $5.4 billion in 2035.

Ride-hailing and carpooling

North America’s ride-hailing and carpool markets are large, accounting for just under half of all mobility revenue in the United States. Ride-hailing in North America has the highest average distance per ride — at about six miles per ride — compared to any other region, although usage rates vary by nation: 43% of US consumers reported ride-hail trips, compared to 72% of Mexican consumers and 36% of Canadians, according to a June 2024 Oliver Wyman Forum survey.

Ride-hailing is popular in North America, and providers are transitioning to electric and autonomous options. One ride-hailing provider is partnering with automakers and charging providers, for example, to give drivers easier access to EVs and charging options, and partnered with an autonomous driving company to develop autonomous ride-hailing services. The overall North American ride-hailing market will likely rise from $56 billion in 2023 to $57 billion in 2035, at a 0.3% annual rate.

While ride-hailing growth continues, the industry’s tech transformation is paused until autonomous driving is broadly introduced. Robo-taxis will offer cheaper prices for consumers as labor costs are lowered for providers, enabling higher usage rates. But that increase in usage will not raise overall revenue for providers, as the price for consumers will decrease greatly and will not be fully offset by an expected increased volume of rides. However, ride-hailing providers will see additional marketing revenue opportunities as the technology for in-car entertainment and advertising becomes more widespread. The taxi and ride-hailing players with the highest capacity to offer technology like robo-taxis and in-car entertainment will be the winners in a pivoting industry.

The carpooling market is small and likely to see low growth, with some mobility providers discontinuing carpooling offerings. Given relatively inadequate public transit and the high number of suburban commuters in the US, there is much headroom for growth — although it has yet to materialize due to factors like consumer preferences and carpooling economics. The market is expected to grow from $1 billion in 2023 to $1.4 billion by 2035 at a 2% annual rate.

Micromobility services

Consumer penchant for car travel and long average trip distances pose a challenge for micromobility services. Roughly a third of US and Canadian consumers say they use micromobility services in an average month, with just over half of Mexicans saying the same, according to a June 2024 Oliver Wyman Forum survey. And a high growth in personal ownership rates of e-scooters and bikes saps customers away from sharing services: Sales in the US have increased by nearly 30% since 2020, and e-bikes saw an approximately 240% growth between 2018 and 2022.

Yet there will still be modest growth, mostly concentrated until 2030. The bike-sharing market is expected to rise from $457 million in 2023 to $688 million in 2030 and $920 million in 2035 at a 6% annual growth rate. Scooter-sharing will have slower growth, rising from $736 million in 2023 to $905 million in 2030 and $1 billion in 2035 at a 3% annual growth rate. More commuters will still likely use these services over time: There were just 13.8 million bike-sharing users in 2023, but there are expected to be 27.8 million by 2035. 

Some services, like moped-sharing, have been launched in some cities, but rollout has been slowed by high upfront costs of establishing a fleet and consumer disinterest in licensing and safety protocols that must be followed to drive mopeds. Shared moped services were offered in San Francisco, New York, and Austin, but all of these programs have been abandoned in part due to low uptake.

Other services, like bikes and scooters, are not a relatively popular mode in the US as cycling infrastructure is largely inadequate, but many cities have made recent investments in access, safety, and convenience in using micromobility. New York, Los Angeles, and Montreal, for example, are expanding bike lane infrastructure.

Scooter-sharing has rapidly expanded in many North American cities, particularly those in California, but regulatory, user, and safety challenges have hindered growth. Strict bans on scooter sharing in some major cities like New Orleans and Las Vegas create an uneven regulatory environment across the US. And there are safety concerns, with scooters involved in significant injuries and accidents involving riders, cars, and pedestrians.

In San Francisco, an early adopter of e-scooters, recent regulations fine commuters for riding on sidewalks and limit the number of devices permitted in high-use areas. These policies can improve traffic flow and safety, but the burden of regulatory limits led, in part, to an exodus of some scooter-sharing operators from San Francisco.

Digital services

Digital services that cater to cars, like EV charging, advanced driver-assistance systems, and smart parking, will have the largest growth of any other mobility market in North America. 

Advanced driver-assistance systems

No other mobility market is set to have as meteoric a rise as advanced driver-assist systems in North America, likely rising from $539 million to $83.5 billion in 2035 with a 52% annual growth rate.

Regulation is helping standardize some of these systems in new cars. The US Department of Transportation finalized a new standard in 2024 that requires emergency braking to be standard on all passenger cars, SUVs, and light trucks by September 2029. And localized activity across the US is progressing autonomous vehicles into the mainstream. San Francisco and Phoenix both offer robo-taxi services to the public, and Dallas held tests of the technology in 2024. Meanwhile, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology opened a research center to study autonomous vehicle and other transportation in 2023.

Exponential growth in ADAS also can be attributed to an increased adoption of the technology across North American vehicles. Up to 80% of vehicles in the region will offer ADAS technology by 2035, growing at a 22% annual rate. A quarter of car owners with ADAS capabilities will adopt subscription-based ADAS services by 2035, rising by 21% each year, according to our forecasts.

The expectation is that original equipment manufacturers will see increased average monthly subscription revenue. That will balance the time it takes to implement new features and the price difference between those that are more basic — like cruise control and emergency braking — from those that are more advanced, in which vehicles can manage certain scenarios without human intervention.

Yet the industry may have to foster more consumer acceptance of autonomous technologies. More than a third of consumers in Canada and the US say they will probably or definitely use autonomous transit, while 57% of Mexican consumers said the same. American and Canadian rates fall below the 46% global average.

Electric vehicle charging services

More charging infrastructure is critical for the uptake of EVs. Half of consumers in the US, Canada, and Mexico said the availability of charging stations was the most important factor for considering buying or leasing an EV. Recent regulatory pushes will increase charging infrastructure in the region, such as the United States’ $5 billion program to build charging stations along highways or the Canadian federal government’s aim to build 679,000 public charging ports by 2040.

The wider charging ecosystem in North America is primed for growth as well: The US Inflation Reduction Act has encouraged investments in electric battery research and production, fueling a roughly 50% share of the overall global funding for mobility startups in 2023. And US-based EV and grid-scale battery markets are projected to more than double, from $78 billion in 2024 to nearly $193 billion by 2030, according to an Oliver Wyman analysis.

Although many original equipment manufacturers have tempered their expectations for meeting ambitious EV sales targets in North America, the charging services market is projected to grow from $207 million in 2023 to $10.1 billion by 2035 at a 38% annual growth rate.

In-vehicle digital services

Customizable services in cars, like upgradable entertainment systems and Wi-Fi capabilities, are set to have a significant growth in North America as automakers continue to expand these offerings and create new revenue streams. By 2023, more than 70% of the region’s cars will offer this technology.

The in-vehicle digital services market is forecasted to increase from $3.5 billion in 2023 to $36 billion by 2035 at a 21% annual rate.

Smart parking

The US is one of the largest markets for parking thanks to high rates of car ownership. Yet a high ratio of parking spots to cars — eight to one — contributes to a low utilization rate of parking spots, suggesting a high potential for optimization from smart parking services.

A high digitization rate of on- and off-street parking is driving this growth, with a 13% annual growth rate in the former and a 15% annual growth rate in the latter.

The North American smart parking industry is expected to grow from $1.9 billion in 2023 to $12.3 billion by 2035 at a 17% annual rate.

Navigation services

A slow growth in navigation services is attributed to the market’s maturity and the dominance of a few players, increasing largely in line with the population rate.

The navigation service market will inch from $3.2 billion in 2023 to $3.5 billion by 2035 at a 1% growth rate.

Revisiting The Mobility Industry’s 2030 Forecast

New developments in regulation, consumer appetites, economic conditions, and technology have shifted the growth forecasts of some mobility sectors since the Oliver Wyman Forum’s previous edition of this report, published in 2022.

Regulatory pushes for electric vehicles in Asia and Europe, for example, have fueled more optimistic outlooks for the charging services market, while urban air mobility still needs to gain acceptance from many government agencies. Profitability and operating model challenges also have dimmed projections for services like carpooling and car subscription. In revisiting our original forecast, the Oliver Wyman Forum has reset expectations and methodologies in the following areas.

Inflation is not factored into our mobility revenue projections 

The previous edition of this report factored inflation into future industry revenue value predictions. Given the uncertain inflationary environment globally, the Oliver Wyman Forum has not factored inflation into this report’s projections to 2035. This allows our analysis to focus on real growth in mobility value pools, rather than inflation impacts. All values are reported in 2023 United States dollars. While any comparison between the 2022 and 2024 editions will differ due to inflation, the contrasts in the projections highlighted below are primarily driven by factors beyond inflation.

Regulatory and tech setbacks damper air taxi projections

Air taxis were initially forecasted for significant growth through 2030, but slowdowns due to regulatory hurdles and difficulties associated with deploying the technologies have slowed expectations. The air taxi market is now expected to grow up to $3.1 billion by 2030. While this growth remains relevant to the overall mobility industry, it is significantly slowed compared to previous projections.

While a handful of companies are developing and preparing to mass-produce air taxi vehicles, challenges that have hampered expectations include developing new systems of air traffic control to manage simultaneous flights, creating highly connected autonomous vehicle flying systems that can operate in urban areas, and dealing with negative public perception due to safety about fully autonomous flight. Meanwhile, airports still need to integrate air taxis into their operating and business models.

Regulation provides some optimism for the industry. The US Federal Aviation Administration released an implementation plan outlining steps that regulators and companies must take to safely enable advanced air mobility operations in the near- term, featuring plans to scale solutions at one or more sites by 2028. Meanwhile, the European Commission in 2024 finished a regulatory framework that allows for the launch of air taxi services.

Bus pooling has been removed from this report’s scope

Like air taxis, bus pooling similarly had high expectations but will likely not materialize significantly by 2030. The business model is not considered widely viable due to lack of interest from consumers and more effective methods of addressing commuter needs through other mobility services like carpooling, car-sharing, and ride-hailing. However, there is a remaining need for rural mobility solutions, outside of densely populated areas, where bus pooling can play a role.

The original 2030 projection for the global bus pooling market was $5.6 billion. Bus pooling has since been removed from this report’s projections.

Short-term carpooling projections are reduced

Like bus pooling, carpool expectations have been scaled back due to practical challenges and consumer preferences.

Multiple riders involved can raise the potential for delays, while trust and safety remain a concern for consumers wary of sharing a vehicle with strangers. And, in some countries, carpooling pickup and drop-off still needs to be integrated with existing infrastructure like bus stops to avoid safety concerns. However, there may be methods to integrate carpooling into existing infrastructure to make these services easier and more accessible. Major ride-hailing players discontinued pooled rides in 2023.

Profitability challenges curtail car subscription expectations

The car subscription model is still rather new, and all players must still invest heavily in customer acquisition and face high costs. The business model is still being refined, and residual value management remains challenging — particularly in the face of electrified mobility.

These challenges have pushed providers to focus on business-to-business segments rather than business-to-consumer. Yet some companies have faced similar profitability challenges in offering car subscription services to businesses.

Still, consumers are gravitating toward the service. An average of 22% of global consumers reported using a car subscription service in a June 2024 Oliver Wyman Forum survey. That’s up from 14% of those who said the same in an April 2023 survey.

Shared micromobility services fall short in North America and Europe

Reduced projections are due to slow growth in micromobility services post-pandemic, as barriers like insufficient infrastructure and regulatory headwinds remain. 

The original 2030 projection for shared micromobility services in North America was $4.7 billion. That outlook has been reduced to $1.6 billion by 2030. In Europe, the original 2030 projection was $7.1 billion – significantly higher than this report’s $2.2 billion forecast for 2030. 

Expectations for Asian and European EV charging services markets increase while North America declines

Increased growth expectations in Asia and Europe are due in part to the large share of the global EV market these regions represent. China alone accounted for 60% of new electric car registrations in 2023 and Europe accounted for 25%. The original 2030 projection for the Asian charging services market was $1.4 billion, with a current 2030 forecast of $12.6 billion. Europe’s market was originally pegged to $5.8 billion by 2030. That projection has been increased to $7.9 billion by the same year.

Lower growth expectations in North America are driven by a reduced pipeline for EV deployment, as ambitious projections by original equipment manufacturers have become more measured. However, high growth in charging and EV deployment in general are still expected. The original 2030 projection for the North American charging market was $4.9 billion. That forecast has been reduced to $2 billion by 2030.

How We Measure Mobility Industry Growth

This report combines wide-ranging research and expert perspectives from within Oliver Wyman and the broader mobility industry to offer a comprehensive view of the industry’s growth over the next decade.

Known as a “driver tree approach” to arrive at 2023, 2030, and 2035 revenue figures, our analysis allows for region- and sector-specific views by combining macroeconomic trends, social factors, and microeconomic drivers.

Our analysis first assembled key drivers, including current assumptions such as population, fleet sizes for different mobility offerings, costs of different mobility services, and measures of how people use mobility services, such as average trip distances. These drivers are used to calculate a 2023 market size and revenue for each mobility sector included in the report. And while the exact approach varies for each sector, all 2023 figures are built bottom-up from key assumptions. The 2023 figures are then validated against industry reports and internal and external experts, setting a baseline for projections.

To project value pools through 2030 and 2035, we assume how each underlying driver behind the sectors may change over time. Some assumptions include a growth rate for a region’s population, or a growth rate based on whether a given market is becoming commoditized, leading to lower prices over time. Assumptions also consider whether industry consolidation or new product developments may increase prices over time. These trends are developed based on research and expert input from both Oliver Wyman and those in relevant industries.

Inflation is not included in the analysis given its uncertainty, and all values are reported in 2023 United States dollars. Removing inflation allows the analysis to focus on real growth in mobility value rather than nominal growth from inflation.

This analysis focuses on nascent markets and long-term views, and its predictions are subject to change amid an accepted level of uncertainty. Given the uncertainty of the current macroeconomic market, we have in part updated the assumptions of projections from the previous edition of this report, published in 2022. In many cases, nascent- market analyses are based on expert-led assumptions, but these markets may not fully materialize in some cases or may exceed expectations in others. Our report offers a unique opportunity to see how market projections change over time. Some players in the mobility space are “market makers,” just as the major players were who created ride-hailing. The success of predicting new markets will rely on the activities of key companies in this space and includes an inherent amount of unpredictability.

This analysis is completed to the Oliver Wyman Forum’s best knowledge of the mobility industry as of the date of publication, and that knowledge is limited based on assumptions made for the analysis.

Acknowledgements

Authors

Andreas Nienhaus, Steffen Rilling, David Markey

Contributors

Ludovic Cartigny, Andrew Culver, Evelyn Chavez, Héloïse De Paulou Massat, Jodie Gadd, Scot Hornick, Dustin Irwin, David Kaplan, Jonas Junk, Dan Kleinman, Eddison Lee, Jeff Leavitt, Nick Liptak, Malvika Manoj, Jack McCann, Adam Mehring, Jilian Mincer, Augusto Mongrut, Brooke Price, Colson Santiago, German Shumakov, Marc Stanke, Sam Tiltman, Pam Wiener, Wald Truter, Emma Xu

Art & Design

Kaori Hayama, Anna Kulinich, Agnieszka Kwapisz, Karen Lara, Adrien Slimani, Mattias Sundell 

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