This article originally appeared in the World Economic Forum on Nov 27, 2024.
- Global spending on mobility services is expected to triple in the next decade from $389 billion in 2023 to $1.1 trillion by 2035.
- Asia will represent more than half of the total demand for mobility services by 2035, with $573 billion in revenue.
- For greener mobility growth to be equitable, efficient and sustainable we need reliable regulations, public/private partnerships and infrastructure expansion.
Global spending on mobility services is expected to triple in the next decade from $389 billion in 2023 to $1.1 trillion by 2035, driven largely by significant expansion in electrical vehicle (EV) charging and digital services, especially advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS).
EV charging services are expected to grow globally by 32% a year and walking, biking, shared mobility and public transit in Europe by 17 percentage points, according to a new report, What Urban Mobility Will Look Like in 2035, by the Oliver Wyman Forum, a think tank affiliated with the consultancy.
About a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions come from transportation. Shifting away from gas-powered personal car ownership and towards greater use of public transit, shared mobility services and EVs could significantly reduce emissions.
Ensuring that this mobility growth is equitable, efficient and sustainable requires a more reliable regulatory framework, partnerships between governments and industry and expansion of existing infrastructure. Here’s how:
Expect big growth
The report found that the mobility mix will shift significantly during the next decade. Asia, which contributed 41% of the total mobility market share in 2023, is expected to lead the growth with an annual increase of 11% from $161 billion in 2023 to $573 billion by 2035. It will represent more than half of the total demand for mobility services.
Europe’s focus on decarbonization and high adoption of EVs makes it the second-fastest growing market. It is expected to climb to $246 billion in 2035 from $92 billion in 2023. Personal vehicle use is expected to drop to 49% of the total mobility demand in 2035 from 66% in 2023 as more people use public transit, micromobility and options like car rentals, subscriptions and sharing services. Public transit use is expected to climb to 25% of the mix from 19% in 2023 and active transport, like walking and biking, to 13% from 9%.
Make mobility equitable
While car ownership is dropping, congestion levels will remain high in the coming years across the world. Providing safe, convenient and affordable alternatives, including mass transit and micromobility options, can be a sustainable alternative. Accelerating the use of autonomous vehicle adoption can help further reduce the number of cars on the road.
EV charging services is expected to be one of biggest contributors to decarbonization. It is expected to grow globally to $72 billion in 2035 from $2.6 billion in 2023.
Reliability is crucial. Nearly a quarter of consumers intending to purchase a car plan to make it an EV, according to a global Oliver Wyman Forum survey completed in June 2024. But the availability of charging stations is the most important influence keeping consumers from EVs and purchasing hybrids, according to the survey. As capital grows, the stations are likely to become more efficient. New digital solutions could increase reliability of stations and make fast charging more easily accessible, which is essential for EV growth.
There also will be an increase in efficiency due to Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), which are set to climb by 54% annually. ADAS are expected to soar from $1.7 billion in 2023 to $307 billion by 2035, driven by technological advances and consumer demand for autonomous features.
Forge partnerships
The magnitude of investments required to maintain and upgrade transportation infrastructure calls for more partnerships. There is no single entity or industry with sufficient resources to invest in multiple shifts, but the private sector can contribute data, resources and cutting-edge technology, while governments provide policy, funding and regulations to ensure safety.
Consider charging services: governments globally have supported EV adoption via public investments through EV rebates, tax incentives and investments in charging infrastructure, while the private sector has built the vehicles and charging infrastructure.
Similarly, cities are building new pedestrian and bicycle paths while the private sector encourages bike-sharing and other sustainable modes of transport.
Provide sensible regulation
Government and industry need to work together to develop an appropriate regulatory framework. Effective regulation can provide the guidelines and guardrails that industries like autonomous driving, air taxis and micromobility need.
The regulations can also build trust. Autonomous driving, for example, has been mature for a while, but regulators have been cautious about allowing them on the roads. Having a reliable regulatory framework helps steer innovation and build customer trust in new mobility services.
Stricter safety regulations are the top factor for consumers considering using autonomous vehicles, according to a 17-country survey completed in June 2024 by the Oliver Wyman Forum.
Focus on efficiency
One of the best ways to grow these markets is to build on existing programmes. Cities can lower their carbon footprints and manage traffic flow by integrating public transit systems and new technologies.
Bike use and sharing programmes, for example, could grow if cities expand the cycling infrastructure to make it easier for people to commute by bike, something many cities are doing. The infrastructure must be safe and convenient but doesn’t necessarily require significant investment compared to other mobility modes.