There is no disputing the result of the US election this time. Donald Trump won the popular vote and all seven swing states while Republicans took the Senate and retained control in the House.
We won’t know for some time if this is the end of an old era and the start of a new one. But Trump’s election is a dark warning that liberal democracy underpinned by a market economy and the rule of law, which we fought to defend through World War II and the Cold War, is now under an insidious threat.
In Europe, we shall soon see if extremist groups in Germany do well enough to force themselves into national government as they have in the Netherlands. Will a share of power moderate the policies of far-right parties, as we see in Italy? What surprise does the 2027 presidential election in France hold — assuming Emmanuel Macron can last that long?
We do know that Trump is unpredictable. Like Richard Nixon a half century ago, he sees it as a strategic strength, keeping both friends and foes guessing what he will do next. We should expect the unexpected.
The core of Trumpism
Trump’s view of the world is being driven by four strongly held opinions. He believes other countries have taken advantage of the United States to secure their defense and prosperity without paying their way. He also doesn’t believe that America should be the world’s policeman and will do what he can to keep the country out of wars.
On economic issues, Trump does not believe in free trade, thinking (with good reason) that it has caused industry to leave America and harmed American workers. He also believes (this time with little evidence) that tariffs are the best weapon to force other countries to do what America wants and bring industry back.
The markets have been buoyed by Trump’s election, seeing in his promise of tax cuts and deregulation a bonanza for American business. That may be premature. Trump’s commitment to cut taxes, impose tariffs, and deport low-cost migrant labor will add to inflation. And rising US debt combined with high interest rates make a debt crisis a real possibility during Trump’s second term — and a confrontation with the Federal Reserve over interest rates a near certainty.
The Findlandization of Ukraine?
On the international front, Ukraine will provide the first test for the incoming administration. Trump won’t want his first foreign policy decision to be seen as an act of weakness like Joe Biden’s scuttle-and-run from Afghanistan. But Trump’s election does improve the prospect the conflict will end in 2025.
Vladimir Putin will have to be persuaded for that to happen. He will demand that Ukraine be excluded from NATO and that Russia get some sanctions relief. And there is no doubt that Trump will look to Europe to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, is right to make the most of the disruption Trump’s election will bring. Ukraine is not doing well in the war and is not going to regain its territory by military means.
Finland’s history may be instructive here. The country ceded 11% of its territory and agreed to remain neutral to reach a peace deal with Stalin’s Soviet Union after World War II. A similar deal would be a bitter pill for the Ukrainians to swallow, and Putin will be strongly opposed: Ukraine is closer to his heart than Finland was to Stalin’s. But if Ukraine can manage its future relations with Moscow as well as Finland has done during the last 80 years, that might be the best available outcome.
Watch Trump’s tone on China
Trump will talk tough and introduce high tariffs on at least some Chinese exports to the US. President Xi will retaliate, and in parallel increase the pressure on Taiwan. The chances of a Taiwan crisis in the next four years have gone up.
Trump doesn’t like wars and Taiwan is not, in his view, a vital US national interest. So I can’t see him deploying US forces to defend Taiwan if it came to a fight. Xi Jinping may have the same assessment, which might encourage him to take risks, especially if his many problems at home worsen, challenging the Communist Party’s control.
Xi will feel his way forward, knowing that a successful blockade of Taiwan will take time and provoke Western sanctions that the Chinese economy can ill afford. Trump’s tone on China will be important.
Friends and foes in the Middle East
In the Middle East, Trump will want Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to do as much damage as he can to Hamas and Hezbollah before the US inauguration and then bring the fighting to an end. I have deep concerns about Israeli intentions toward the West Bank and Gaza. We are likely to see further annexations and more Palestinians forced to leave. I don’t expect the Trump administration to care much.
The bigger challenge in the region is Iran. Judging from what Trump’s nominees have said, there will be support across the new administration for an Iran policy of total pressure. Trump’s grievance will have been deepened by FBI evidence that the Iranians plotted to kill him during the presidential campaign. This is personal.
The first move will be to reinforce sanctions, including on Iranian oil exports, which the Biden administration unwisely allowed to grow. But Netanyahu has his eye on the opportunity to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Only the Americans have the ordnance and the reach to destroy facilities deep under rock and concrete. The idea of doing permanent damage to Iran’s nuclear weapons program, at a time when the Iranian regime is weak and vulnerable, will be tempting for the incoming US president.
The challenge for Europe
Trump’s election brings profound implications for Europe, including Britain. The comfortable position Europe has had since 1989, free riding on America’s defense guarantee, is coming to a rapid end. America’s attention is now focused on Asia, not Europe. Europeans have to stand up for themselves.
The UK government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer will face some difficult choices. Defense spending needs to rise sharply, and we shall have to refocus our armed forces on our national defense. But it isn’t clear where the money will come from, or if the government is able to follow through on the logic of our strategic situation.
The politics of moving closer to the European Union will be eased by Trump’s election, but doing so will narrow the space Starmer has to strengthen the UK’s relationship with the United States. We Brits are at home on both sides of the Atlantic; European by geography, history, and trade while part of the Anglosphere by culture, law, and our approach to national security. Our future, like our past, will be a mixture of both.
Sir John Sawers is founder and executive chairman of political risk consultancy Newbridge Advisory. He has more than three decades of experience in diplomacy and intelligence, culminating in five years as chief of the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service, also known as MI6. This column summarizes views he presented in November at the Global Strategy Forum in London.